Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
